BJP Stares at Possible Dissent in Bihar Ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

As 2019 Lok Sabha elections draw closer, fear seems to have gripped the BJP in Bihar with seat distribution expected to cause friction within NDA allies.

The BJP, which leads the alliance, will have to watch its step before making any announcements as all the four National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parties are eyeing Lok Sabha berths. Any 'wrong move' could hamper the party's prospects, especially as the united opposition is leaving no stone unturned to defeat the BJP.

Despite Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), JD(U) and BJP being a part of the same alliance, the parties often have different stands on important issues. Moreover, incidents of candidates’ skipping and hopping increase ahead of polls.

In such a scenario, it will be interesting to see how BJP keeps its flock together in Bihar during the 2019 general elections.

In 2009, BJP and JD(U) contested together sharing 25-15 seats. While BJP won 12 out of 15 and JD(U) won 20, Kumar later broke the alliance in 2014 over Narendra Modi’s candidature as PM. Following this, both the parties contested separately.

The BJP won 22 seats on its own while its new ally, the LJP, won six out of the seven seats it contested and the RLSP won three out of four seats it contested. The JD(U) was reduced to winning just two out of 40 seats.

JD(U) is now back in the NDA and on various occasions we have seen its leaders claiming that their party is the senior partner in the alliance.

This will become a problem for other allies like RLSP and LJP. Recently, the confusion was evident at the NDA unity meet which was not attended by Union minister Upendra Kushwaha, citing other engagements in Delhi. The meeting was called by the state BJP for better coordination among the allies.

RLSP leader Nagmani recently said, "We cannot accept Nitish Kumar as the leader of the coalition in Bihar."

Recalling Kumar’s switch to the NDA, he also questioned the JD(S) chief's loyalty. “What’s the guarantee that he won’t go back with RJD?” Nagmani asked.

Tejaswi has already invited Upendra Kushwaha to join the ‘mahagatbandhan’. Keeping the vote share in mind, ‘luring’ Kushwaha in the joint opposition will be a big dent to the NDA vote share in Bihar.

Kushwahas make up 10% of Bihar's electorate. Amid possibilities and speculations, Kushwaha has claimed that the “NDA is together”. “We are with Narendra Modi. We will also ensure that he comes back to power in 2019,” he said.

On the other hand, LJP national president and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan is confident that the seat sharing will not be a problem and things will be sorted. With six MPs, LJP plays a vital role in keeping the Paswan votes intact.

Will BS Yeddyurappa be the Kalyan Singh or Jagdambika Pal of Karnataka

Hung assemblies do not easily produce governments. It’s a process in which the rough and the ready carry the day. Often with the help of friendly governors, and legislators willing to trade loyalties.

No matter who triumphs in the ongoing tussle in Karnataka, the developments there could have far-reaching consequences across India. Alleged gubernatorial misdemeanours have historically evoked the ire of regional parties. There is already a churning in the South and in the North.

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has exited the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), making the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) “step-motherly” treatment of Andhra Pradesh an issue of Telugu pride.

A Janata Dal (Secular) ally in Karnataka, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also stitching together a partnership with the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti’s (TRS) K Chandrasekhar Rao is working on a federal front in tandem with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Chief minister’s post hasn’t come easy for BJP’s Karnataka strongman BS Yeddyurappa
As a case study, the political ferment that has engulfed Karnataka has parallels in Uttar Pradesh in 1998. Kalyan Singh was the chief minister in Lucknow and IK Gujral the United Front’s prime minister in Delhi.

The Kalyan Singh government, conceived in a hung assembly, rested on support from defectors from across the anti-BJP spectrum. The turncoats escaped the anti-defection law with Kesari Nath Tripathi seemingly acting more like a BJP man than the speaker of the assembly. Rampant poaching appeared to take place when Mayawati withdrew support to Kalyan Singh after taking her six-month turn as chief minister in the March 1997 rotational power-sharing arrangement.

The efflux from the SP, the BSP and the Congress helped Kalyan prove a majority amid unprecedented violence in the House in October. He even survived Governor Romesh Bhandari’s recommendation of President’s Rule. The Gujral regime didn’t pursue the matter after the proposal didn’t pass muster with President KR Narayanan.

The jumbo 98-strong Kalyan ministry was proof of the perks of defection. Very much part of it was a breakaway Congress faction, called Loktantrik Congress and led by Naresh Aggarwal and Jagdambika Pal. It later played the Trojan horse.