Monday, June 11, 2018

BJP Stares at Possible Dissent in Bihar Ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

As 2019 Lok Sabha elections draw closer, fear seems to have gripped the BJP in Bihar with seat distribution expected to cause friction within NDA allies.

The BJP, which leads the alliance, will have to watch its step before making any announcements as all the four National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parties are eyeing Lok Sabha berths. Any 'wrong move' could hamper the party's prospects, especially as the united opposition is leaving no stone unturned to defeat the BJP.

Despite Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), JD(U) and BJP being a part of the same alliance, the parties often have different stands on important issues. Moreover, incidents of candidates’ skipping and hopping increase ahead of polls.

In such a scenario, it will be interesting to see how BJP keeps its flock together in Bihar during the 2019 general elections.

In 2009, BJP and JD(U) contested together sharing 25-15 seats. While BJP won 12 out of 15 and JD(U) won 20, Kumar later broke the alliance in 2014 over Narendra Modi’s candidature as PM. Following this, both the parties contested separately.

The BJP won 22 seats on its own while its new ally, the LJP, won six out of the seven seats it contested and the RLSP won three out of four seats it contested. The JD(U) was reduced to winning just two out of 40 seats.

JD(U) is now back in the NDA and on various occasions we have seen its leaders claiming that their party is the senior partner in the alliance.

This will become a problem for other allies like RLSP and LJP. Recently, the confusion was evident at the NDA unity meet which was not attended by Union minister Upendra Kushwaha, citing other engagements in Delhi. The meeting was called by the state BJP for better coordination among the allies.

RLSP leader Nagmani recently said, "We cannot accept Nitish Kumar as the leader of the coalition in Bihar."

Recalling Kumar’s switch to the NDA, he also questioned the JD(S) chief's loyalty. “What’s the guarantee that he won’t go back with RJD?” Nagmani asked.

Tejaswi has already invited Upendra Kushwaha to join the ‘mahagatbandhan’. Keeping the vote share in mind, ‘luring’ Kushwaha in the joint opposition will be a big dent to the NDA vote share in Bihar.

Kushwahas make up 10% of Bihar's electorate. Amid possibilities and speculations, Kushwaha has claimed that the “NDA is together”. “We are with Narendra Modi. We will also ensure that he comes back to power in 2019,” he said.

On the other hand, LJP national president and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan is confident that the seat sharing will not be a problem and things will be sorted. With six MPs, LJP plays a vital role in keeping the Paswan votes intact.

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